Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 78% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 74% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 64% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 40% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 38% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 36% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 89% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →