Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 99% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 98% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 71% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 22% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 1% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: germany vs. paraguay - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →