Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 87% |
| Spread -1.5 | 84% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| Spread -3.5 | 71% |
| Spread -4.5 | 71% |
| Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Spread -6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -7.5 | 58% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCLA Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Wisconsin O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1H Moneyline | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 35.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| UCLA O/U 23.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -14.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 30% |
| O/U 37.5 | 27% |
| O/U 47.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 20% |
| O/U 39.5 | 20% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Wisconsin vs. UCLA | 17% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| O/U 41.5 | 13% |
| Spread -1.5 | 12% |
| O/U 43.5 | 12% |
| Spread -3.5 | 11% |
| Spread -2.5 | 11% |
| Wisconsin O/U 20.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 8% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| O/U 45.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| Wisconsin O/U 23.5 | 6% |
| O/U 49.5 | 5% |
| O/U 51.5 | 5% |
| O/U 53.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| O/U 55.5 | 3% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| O/U 61.5 | 2% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 1% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Wisconsin 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Wisconsin vs. UCLA. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 17% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-17T23:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $350K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Wisconsin vs. UCLA" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →