Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 202.5 | 96% |
| O/U 204.5 | 95% |
| O/U 206.5 | 94% |
| O/U 208.5 | 93% |
| O/U 210.5 | 92% |
| O/U 212.5 | 90% |
| O/U 214.5 | 88% |
| Bucks O/U 100.5 | 87% |
| O/U 216.5 | 85% |
| O/U 218.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 81% |
| O/U 220.5 | 78% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| O/U 222.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 75% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 72% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| O/U 224.5 | 71% |
| Bucks O/U 104.5 | 70% |
| Spread -7.5 | 68% |
| O/U 226.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 66% |
| Spread -8.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 64% |
| O/U 228.5 | 63% |
| Bucks O/U 106.5 | 63% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| Spread -9.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 61% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 58% |
| O/U 230.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 57% |
| Bucks O/U 108.5 | 57% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| O/U 232.5 | 54% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 54% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 52% |
| Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| Bucks O/U 110.5 | 51% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 67.5 | 51% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 65.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 234.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks O/U 98.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 130.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 132.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 134.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 136.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| 76ers O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| O/U 236.5 | 45% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Bucks O/U 112.5 | 44% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 42% |
| Bucks O/U 102.5 | 42% |
| Spread -15.5 | 41% |
| O/U 238.5 | 41% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 40% |
| Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 39% |
| Bucks O/U 114.5 | 39% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 240.5 | 37% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -17.5 | 36% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 36% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| O/U 242.5 | 33% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Bucks O/U 116.5 | 33% |
| Spread -18.5 | 32% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 30% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| O/U 244.5 | 28% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Bucks O/U 118.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| O/U 246.5 | 26% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 26% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 60.5 | 26% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| Spread -22.5 | 23% |
| O/U 248.5 | 23% |
| 1H Moneyline | 23% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Bucks O/U 120.5 | 23% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 21% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Spread -24.5 | 19% |
| O/U 250.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 19% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 18% |
| Bucks O/U 122.5 | 18% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Bucks vs. 76ers | 16% |
| Spread -26.5 | 16% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 16% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 14% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 29.5 | 13% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -28.5 | 12% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -3.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Spread -30.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 7% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -34.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -38.5 | 4% |
| Spread -11.5 | 4% |
| Spread -40.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Bucks vs. 76ers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 16% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T23:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $123K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.
Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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