Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 25.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 88% |
| O/U 29.5 | 87% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 87% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 87% |
| O/U 31.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Falcons O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 79% |
| O/U 33.5 | 78% |
| O/U 34.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| Falcons O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| Falcons O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| O/U 35.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Falcons O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| O/U 37.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| O/U 38.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| Falcons O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| O/U 39.5 | 61% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 60% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 57% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 41.5 | 55% |
| O/U 42.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Falcons Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Falcons vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Falcons 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 44.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 43% |
| O/U 45.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| Falcons O/U 20.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 39% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 37% |
| 1H Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| O/U 47.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 48.5 | 34% |
| 2H Moneyline | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| O/U 49.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Falcons vs. Packers | 31% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 29% |
| Falcons Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| O/U 50.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 51.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 52.5 | 24% |
| Falcons O/U 23.5 | 24% |
| Falcons O/U 27.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Falcons O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| Falcons O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Falcons O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| O/U 53.5 | 21% |
| Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 55.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 16% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| O/U 57.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 16.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 58.5 | 12% |
| O/U 60.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 1-6 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| O/U 65.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 7-12 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Falcons 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 13-18 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 25+ | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Falcons by 19-24 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Falcons vs. Packers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 31% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-25T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $4.4M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Vorhersage Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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