Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 84% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 83% |
| Mavericks O/U 105.5 | 82% |
| O/U 224.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 75% |
| O/U 227.5 | 74% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 73% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 58.5 | 71% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 71% |
| O/U 230.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 231.5 | 67% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 67% |
| O/U 232.5 | 66% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 65% |
| Mavericks O/U 111.5 | 65% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 65% |
| O/U 233.5 | 64% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| O/U 234.5 | 62% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 60.5 | 62% |
| O/U 235.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 236.5 | 58% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| O/U 237.5 | 56% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 238.5 | 55% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 54% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 62.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 59.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| Mavericks O/U 115.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 239.5 | 52% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 240.5 | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 131.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 127.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 133.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| Overtime? | 46% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 45% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 64.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| O/U 243.5 | 43% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Pacers O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| O/U 246.5 | 37% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 34.5 | 36% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 66.5 | 35% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Mavericks O/U 121.5 | 34% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Pacers O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | 30% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 249.5 | 28% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 26% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 39.5 | 25% |
| Mavericks O/U 125.5 | 25% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 24% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 21% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 15.5 | 16% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 15% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 24.5 | 15% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 11% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Mavericks vs. Pacers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 30% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-23T23:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $265K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Mavericks vs. Pacers" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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