Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 87% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 70% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 60% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 59% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 55% |
| O/U 40.5 | 54% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| O/U 42.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 40% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 45.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 37% |
| 1H Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 46.5 | 34% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 24% |
| O/U 50.5 | 23% |
| Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 22% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 19% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 18% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 18% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 14% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Safety? | 9% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 5% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 95% Chance für prognose: steelers vs. patriots. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots".…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $2.0M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Vorhersage Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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