Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 27.5 | 89% |
| O/U 29.5 | 84% |
| O/U 28.5 | 84% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| Seahawks vs. Commanders | 76% |
| O/U 32.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 71% |
| O/U 33.5 | 70% |
| 1H Moneyline | 69% |
| O/U 34.5 | 68% |
| O/U 35.5 | 66% |
| Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 64% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 37.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks vs. Commanders: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| O/U 41.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| O/U 42.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| O/U 47.5 | 28% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| O/U 48.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 23% |
| O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 50.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| O/U 51.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| Spread -19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| O/U 52.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| O/U 53.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| O/U 55.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| O/U 57.5 | 10% |
| Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -8.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| O/U 58.5 | 7% |
| O/U 60.5 | 7% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 6% |
| O/U 63.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| O/U 67.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Seahawks vs. Commanders — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 94%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Seahawks wins, the market will resolve to "Seahawks". If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $258K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Seahawks vs. Commanders" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →