Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 54% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 44% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 42% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 41% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 33% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 29% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 8% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 7% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 92%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →