Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 98% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 97% |
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 86% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 86% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 83% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 82% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 78% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| O/U 34.5 | 75% |
| Spread -3.5 | 74% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 73% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| O/U 36.5 | 71% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 70% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 66% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 38.5 | 63% |
| Spread -7.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 62% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| Spread -9.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 40.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 56% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| Spread -10.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 44% |
| O/U 44.5 | 43% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 39% |
| O/U 46.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 37% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| Spread -16.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -17.5 | 33% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -19.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| O/U 50.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 22% |
| O/U 52.5 | 21% |
| Spread -21.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 19% |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | 18% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 18% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 15% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 62.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -6.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 4% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -8.5 | 3% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 3% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: eagles vs. jaguars 98%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Eagles and Jaguars, scheduled for October 11 at 9:30AM ET: This market will resolve to "Eagles" if Eagles win the game. This market will r…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $3.8M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Vorhersage Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Vorhersage Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Eagles vs. Jaguars" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →