Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Vorhersage Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Diesen Markt handeln → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 36.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 99% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 99% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 99% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 99% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 99% |
| O/U 38.5 | 98% |
| 1H Moneyline | 98% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 97% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 97% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 40.5 | 96% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 96% |
| Lions vs. Cardinals | 95% |
| O/U 42.5 | 95% |
| Spread -1.5 | 95% |
| O/U 44.5 | 94% |
| Spread -2.5 | 94% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 93% |
| Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| Spread -4.5 | 90% |
| O/U 46.5 | 90% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| Spread -5.5 | 88% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 88% |
| Spread -6.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 48.5 | 84% |
| Spread -7.5 | 82% |
| O/U 50.5 | 81% |
| Spread -8.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 80% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 80% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 80% |
| Spread -9.5 | 79% |
| Spread -10.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| O/U 52.5 | 73% |
| O/U 54.5 | 68% |
| Spread -13.5 | 68% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 67% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Spread -14.5 | 62% |
| O/U 56.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 59% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| Spread -16.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 56% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| O/U 60.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Spread -19.5 | 47% |
| Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| Spread -17.5 | 46% |
| Spread -19.5 | 46% |
| Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 44% |
| Lions vs. Cardinals: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -20.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 39% |
| O/U 62.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 66.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| O/U 68.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -1.5 | 5% |
| Spread -2.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 2% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 1% |
| Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 100% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Lions vs. Cardinals. In the upcoming NFL football game between Lions and Cardinals, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if Lions win the game. This market will resolve to "Cardinals"…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $2.1M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Vorhersage Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Lions vs. Cardinals" auf Vorhersage Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →